The “SaaSpocalypse” didn’t happen. At least not this year…
According to the study European Software Trends & Multiples 2026 from investment bank and advisory firm Avolta, European software financings should reach €36.2 billion for the full year, up from €23.1 billion in 2025. By the end of the third quarter, €26.1 billion had already been raised.
However, this growth in deal values is accompanied by a drop in the number of operations, estimated at 2,709 in 2026, versus 3,420 the previous year. The market is therefore concentrating around a smaller set of companies that attract larger funding rounds.
This dynamic reflects, in particular, the rising prominence of native AI software publishers, which account for 58.5% of the deals recorded in 2026, compared with 49.9% in 2025 and 35.6% in 2021.
Their weight is even more significant in value, as they now concentrate more than three-quarters of the capital raised. Among them are Mistral AI, Helsing, Wayve, Ineffable Intelligence and Advanced Machine Intelligence (AMI).
Meanwhile, the “Security & Infrastructure” segment registers one of the most marked increases. Financing reaches €11.34 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up from €4.71 billion in the same period of 2025. That is an increase of about 141%.
This category, which groups together security and infrastructure activities, does not isolate solely the evolution of cybersecurity publishers. The growth may also reflect the needs associated with the infrastructure required to develop and operate AI.
The other segments show more nuanced trends. Those in the financial sector remain virtually stable, at €4.32 billion versus €4.39 billion a year earlier. Industrial and supply chain players advance, rising from €1.34 billion to €2.36 billion. The legal and HR segment also climbs, from €0.81 to €1.71 billion.
France: deals remain concentrated
France is among the European markets showing growth. Avolta estimates French software publishers’ funding at €6.2 billion in 2026, up from €3.78 billion in 2025. The United Kingdom remains ahead, with €9.7 billion, while Germany reaches €3.7 billion.
As on the European scale, capital is concentrated in a smaller number of firms: 196 in 2026 versus 269 in 2025. And large rounds, notably in AI, heavily weigh on the total.
The French growth must therefore be interpreted cautiously and does not mean that financing conditions have improved for all software publishers.
Valuation multiples likewise reflect the gap between AI-focused firms and others.
Over the past six years, the median EV/Revenue multiple stands at 10.7x for companies classified as AI specialists, versus 7x for other publishers. The gap is roughly 53%.
This premium does not constitute a measure of companies’ profitability nor proof that AI integration automatically raises their value. It can also reflect differences in growth, maturity, size, or business prospects among the firms compared.
The evolution of multiples tied to financing deals also shows that the market remains below its peak levels. After 6.5x in 2024, the median multiple reaches 7.6x in 2026, versus 8.7x in 2021. The recent uptick is therefore not sufficient to characterize a return to the valuation conditions observed at the peak of the previous cycle.
M&A deals dominate by volume, IPOs by value
The exit market remains active. Avolta estimates the enterprise value associated with exits in 2025 at €39.8 billion across 1,230 deals.
By the end of September 2026, the amount already reached €34.4 billion for 894 deals. The study puts total exits at €42 billion for 2026.
M&A transactions account for nearly 90% of exits by number. But their weight in value is much smaller.
In the first nine months of 2026, they account for 30.6% of the disclosed value, compared with 49% for initial public offerings (IPOs) and 20.3% for leveraged buyouts (LBOs).
The distinction is important. Acquisitions are the main route in volume for investors and founders, while IPOs can weigh more on the total exit value. The aggregated amounts are also sensitive to a few large-scale transactions.
The geographic distribution confirms the weight of mid-sized deals.
Over six years, 62% of such exits concern companies valued at under €50 million. Deals between €50 and €150 million account for 20% of the total, while those above €150 million represent 18%.
North American buyers dominate exit value
North American buyers play a dominant role in European exit activity. According to Avolta’s geographic breakdown, they account for more than 80% of exit value in 2025 and about three-quarters by the end of September 2026.
The study also measures investor participation by geographic origin in financing rounds. In 2026, North American investors take part in 19.7% of the deals, ahead of British (18.5%), German (9.2%) and French (8.3%) investors.
These percentages describe presence in funding rounds. They do not correspond to the share of equity held by investors from each country, nor to their proportion in the invested amounts.
Two economic trajectories coexist
The study finally highlights two profiles of software companies within European software.
Over six years, 75% of exits involve self-financed companies, versus 25% for those backed by venture capital.
Valuations differ notably: €18 million median for self-financed firms, versus €55 million for VC-backed ones. The median EV/Revenue multiple stands at 2.6x and 6.6x respectively.
These gaps reflect different growth paths. Self-financed firms typically pursue growth primarily through internal resources. VC-backed companies can mobilize greater means to accelerate development, albeit with higher growth and valuation expectations.
Taken together, they paint a European software market in the process of reconfiguring rather than a sector in broad decline.
Methodology: The 2026 data presented by Avolta includes estimates for the fourth quarter. The published multiples are calculated after excluding values above 20x for financing rounds and 50x for exits. The study covers European software companies founded after 1995, including the United Kingdom.
