How should we measure the weight of the digital in the economy? For instance, by analyzing its influence on the evolution of tasks, skills, and the job market.
The World Economic Forum adopts this approach within its Future Jobs Report, whose 5th edition was recently published.
On the Evolution of Skills
Surveyed employers expect that by 2030, 39% of workers’ skills will be transformed or become obsolete. This rate is lower than in 2018 (42%), in 2020 (57%), and in 2023 (47%). The World Economic Forum attributes this especially to training and/or upskilling undertaken by a growing share of workers (now 50%, up from 41% in the previous gauge).
In France, employers foresee the transformation or obsolescence of 33% of skills by the same deadline. They consider that:
- 38% of workers would not need upskilling (global: 35%)
- 31% would need upskilling in their current roles (global: 29%)
- 20% would need upskilling to move into other roles (global: 19%)
The World Economic Forum’s taxonomy comprises roughly 2,800 skills. According to an analysis based on GPT-4o, the probability that GenAI would take over from humans is “low” or “very low” for 69% of them. It is “moderate” for 28.5%.
If one adds the probabilities “moderate” and “high,” the highest shares are in:
- AI/big data (about 95%)
- Reading/writing/mathematics (about 90%)
- Marketing and media (about 90%)
- Multilingualism (about 85%)
- Programming (about 85%)
- Financial management (about 85%)
- Reliability and attention to detail (about 50%)
- Curiosity (about 45%)
- UI/UX Design (about 40%), etc.
The share of employers who consider AI/big data a core competency rises by 17 points from one report to the next. It is as substantial as the resilience/flexibility/agility item and only slightly less than leadership/influence (22 points).
When contrasting employers who believe the importance of a skill is waning with those who believe it is increasing, the largest gaps appear in technological skills. Specifically, AI/big data (87%), networks/cybersecurity (70%), and tech literacy (68%). They follow with critical thinking (66%), resilience/flexibility/agility (66%), and curiosity (61%).
On the Evolution of Tasks
Globally, employers currently estimate that 47% of tasks are performed mainly by humans, 22% by machines, with the remainder in tandem. The same pattern holds in France (46/22/32). The outlook for 2030 is similar, with only minor variations in the distribution across the three categories. These estimates do not account for potential productivity gains, whether quantitative or qualitative, cautions the World Economic Forum.
Globally, AI-related response strategies for 2025-2030 will involve:
- Training workers to better use AI (77%)
- Hiring personnel to build tools and specific improvements (69%)
- Hiring workers with AI-using capabilities (62%)
- Reorienting the organization to target opportunities created by AI (49%)
- Internal mobility for roles threatened by AI (47%)
- Reducing headcount where AI can perform the job (41%)
As for barriers to AI adoption, the most prominent factor is the lack of skills (50%). Behind that come a lack of vision among leaders and managers (43%), the high cost of products and services (29%), lack of customization capabilities (24%), and regulation (21%).
On the Evolution of the Job Market
Across the board, for 2025-2030, 170 million jobs (about 14% of today’s total) would be created; 92 million would be eliminated.
In relative terms, the strongest job growth will occur in digital occupations: big data specialists (+about 110%), fintech engineers (+about 90%), AI/ML specialists (+about 80%), developers (+about 60%). Beyond the pure tech sector, growth would extend to security specialists (+50%), albeit with technology trends contributing to growth. Further entries include data warehousing specialists and UI/UX designers, before arriving at delivery drivers (+40%).
In absolute terms, these roles would number 10 million more in 2030 than in 2025. The largest increase would be among farmers (+35 million). Developers would rise by 7 million, outpacing gains in store sales personnel (+5 million) and service-related occupations in hospitality and catering (+3 million each).
Among macro trends, digitization will be the force that both creates the most jobs (about 19 million) and destroys the most (about 9 million). The net balance (about 9.9 million) would exceed the gains from the working-age population growth (9.1 million), climate transition efforts (5.5 million), and heightened focus on social issues (5.2 million).
Illustration © Jirsak – Shutterstock
