Think you’ve made some bad predictions? Wait until you meet tech’s most legendary prophets of disaster—the people who confidently declared that cars, computers, the internet (and even Apple!) would go absolutely nowhere. Step right up for a parade of history’s worst tech forecasts, where the only thing more abundant than hindsight is the sweet, sweet taste of humble pie.
From Predicting Bitcoin Booms to Doubting the Automobile
In his latest SatPost newsletter, journalist Trung Phan laughed at his own spectacularly misguided calls for 2022. Among them: Bitcoin rocketing to $100,000, Twitter not being privatized, and—brace yourself—the Canadian soccer team becoming world champions. Modest errors, honestly, when compared to the “Nostradamus-wannabes” of the tech world who have made jaw-droppingly bad predictions.
Let’s start our journey back in 1903. Picture the president of the Michigan Savings Bank, advising Horace Rackham (Henry Ford’s lawyer): “The automobile is a fad; horses are here to stay.” Wise words! After all, even today, our streets are teeming with horse-drawn carriages, and you’d hardly ever spot more than one or two cars a month around the block. (If only sarcasm could be bottled.)
This dazzling forecast was apparently based on seeing fewer and fewer cyclists crossing the boulevards he frequented. From there, he deduced that cars, like bikes, would enjoy a brief flash of popularity but soon fade away. He declined a chance to invest in Ford Motor Co. Five years later, the Ford Model T arrived and became a roaring success. Suffice it to say, the car wasn’t just a passing fancy—it was the dawn of a new era, and the souffle didn’t flop.
Stubborn Skeptics: Personal Computers and Portable Phones
The irresistible dance of tech doom continued through the 1970s. Enter Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation—no slouch in the microcomputer business himself. Olsen boldly proclaimed, “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Legend has it, he shared this insight just as an employee suggested branching out into personal computers. Olsen, who passed away in 2011, probably had ample time to regret his assertion. But if it’s any comfort, even the greatest names have been known to miss a trick (or ten) when it comes to tech trends.
In 1992, another infamous blunder landed courtesy of Intel’s CEO, Andy Grove. The idea of slipping a mobile phone in your pocket? According to Grove, it was just “a chimera driven by the lure of profit.” Maybe that explains, as Trung Phan notes, why Intel completely missed the mobile revolution that would transform modern life.
Internet? Pfft! And Other French Delights
The French, too, have delivered some zingers—most notably Pascal Nègre, Universal Music’s chief in 2001. His legendary take: “The Internet? Who cares, it’ll never work.” He was not alone in his skepticism. Robert Metcalfe, inventor of Ethernet, declared in 1995 that the web was “a spectacular supernova that will collapse in 1996.” And we have economist Paul Krugman, who in 1998 wrote an article for Red Herring echoing Metcalfe: “Internet growth will radically slow, according to ‘Metcalfe’s Law’: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005, it will be clear that the Internet has had no greater economic impact than the fax machine.”
The best part? That gem came from an article titled “Why Most Economists’ Predictions Are Wrong.” Krugman later admitted his error, excusing it as deliberate provocation. Let’s pretend to believe him—he’s a Nobel laureate, after all.
When Tech Titans Get It Spectacularly Wrong
Even Steve Jobs, the perennial visionary, couldn’t escape this hall of fame. In 2003, Jobs warned that inventing platforms like Deezer or Spotify was pointless: “A music subscription service is a guaranteed bankruptcy. Even if you included the return of Jesus in such a system, it wouldn’t succeed,” he told Rolling Stone. Ironically, Jobs’ own Apple creations were often scoffed at by “specialists.”
In 2007, Microsoft boss Steve Ballmer told USA Today that the iPhone launch was doomed: “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. It’s a $500 unsubsidized gadget,” he declared with disdain. For good measure, he predicted Apple would never crack “2 or 3%” of the market, while Microsoft phones would claim “60 or 70 or 80%.”
The skepticism didn’t stop there. The rise of the cloud was also dismissed by multiple experts insisting such an idea would never take off. Trung Phan notes a humbling reality: decision-makers are always more exposed to grand errors of judgement. Still, for every failed prediction, some of these folks actually made winning bets that drove companies to distinction and spurred amazing advances in technology.
If you’re ever tempted to prophesy the death of a new technology, remember: history is littered with “experts” confidently steering into a brick wall. Maybe the best advice? Stay humble, keep curious, and, when in doubt, never bet against change—especially if horses are involved.
