In 2024, Gartner stated that organizations should begin their transition to quantum computing because asymmetric encryption will no longer be secure as early as 2029 and will be fully decryptable by 2034. It is also in this vein that the French National Agency for the Security of Information Systems (ANSSI) declared this year that solutions that are not resistant to the quantum threat would no longer be compliant and certified by the agency.
These positions suggest that quantum computing will soon become a reality, opening extraordinary prospects for innovation—from traffic optimization to accelerating the discovery of new medicines. However, this technology is not pursued only by well-intentioned actors. Cybercriminals are watching closely, because quantum computers will allow them to dismantle all the encryption systems that currently protect the Internet.
The future of the threat: plunder now to decrypt tomorrow
Most modern encryptions rely on asymmetric algorithms for session-key exchange. Their security rests on the fact that today’s computers cannot factor the product of two very large prime numbers within a reasonable time.
Today’s largest quantum computers have about 1,000 qubits and remain stable for only one to two milliseconds. They therefore pose no risk to the most common key-exchange algorithms. However, a quantum computer with around 20 million physically stable qubits could decrypt these key-exchange algorithms in about eight hours, thanks to the remarkable properties of quantum physics. And malicious actors are already actively preparing to capitalize on these capabilities.
At the dawn of this new threat, the approach of cybercriminals follows a simple logic: plunder as much data as possible today to decrypt it tomorrow, when the technology will permit it.
Indeed, anything published online is recorded, and attackers intercept and store these data even now when they are not exploitable yet, in the hope of decrypting them with ease in a few years.
Many industry experts estimate that in six or eight years a quantum computer powerful enough and stable for widespread use should exist. Once that is the case, all data set aside by cybercriminals will become accessible, which could have devastating consequences.
Strengthening crypto-agility
Post-quantum cryptography rests on a range of problems sufficiently complex to withstand the capabilities of these new machines.
A new generation of encryption tools based on quantum-secure algorithms approved by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and by ANSSI is developing, designed to resist attacks carried out with quantum computers. However, deploying secure quantum algorithms is not simply a matter of a quick security upgrade or a 24-hour switch. Organizations must begin today to bolster their crypto-agility.
This concept refers to the ability to rapidly and securely change encryption methods whenever new threats arise, and doing so without disrupting workflows or blowing the budget. Gone is the era when leaders would simply install a protection system and forget about it.
As existing and forthcoming post-quantum cryptography (PQC) algorithms begin to appear in products, default settings will evolve and threats will take on new shapes. If organizations have not begun to develop their agility by then, the transition could be rough.
All chief technology officers, IT directors and other IT security leaders must promptly take stock of their digital infrastructure and ask themselves: “Which encrypted systems are vulnerable?” The answer will not always be obvious.
First and foremost, focus must be on data moving outside the organization. Attackers who plunder data for future decryption target data in motion, moving across the Internet, between different services, or in the cloud.
Data confined to a well-defended network generally poses fewer risks, at least for now. Since external data flows represent the greatest quantum exposure, efforts should prioritize them, whether internally or in dealings with providers and suppliers.
Improving crypto-agility should not be limited to files and folders. The aim is to preserve the integrity of every connection handshake, every header and every hidden dependency in the stack. Any element touched, traversed or inhabited by data must be scrutinized for imminent quantum risk.
Agility as a strategic advantage
Companies that bet everything on AI and data cannot skip quantum resilience. Data can only fuel growth if it remains securely, compliantly and reliably protected over the long term. PQC is thus about future readiness rather than a mere defensive posture. Its adoption demonstrates the ability to project the business into a reconfigured future where it would be catastrophic not to guarantee data integrity.
Fortunately, actionable steps are already available. A year ago, NIST published its first PQC standards. The key encapsulation mechanism based on a module lattice network (ML-KEM, formerly CRYSTALS-Kyber), the default standard for key exchange, will replace RSA and ECC to secure long-term TLS encryption. However, security also depends on external interactions. It is essential to collaborate with cloud providers and partners who are up to date with the latest quantum-security standards and who use certified, reliable algorithms.
To best prepare for the quantum threat, organizations should start by reviewing their systems and precisely cataloging all the tools where encryption is used, bearing in mind that vulnerabilities often lie in the gaps. That is why it is crucial to embed the principle of quantum-secure algorithms in all security initiatives starting today.
Externally, being uncompromising with providers and suppliers will be essential, not merely asking whether they plan PQC initiatives but demanding to know how and when they intend to implement them. Because once quantum computing surpasses its potential to become a reality, it will be too late to protect data already exposed.
*Stanley Nabet is the France Country Manager at Netskope
